Louis Perrault
Advisor-Analyst
Louis Perrault is an Advisor-Analyst at the Office of Parliamentary Budget Officer (OPBO). Prior to joining the PBO, he was an Assistant Professor of Economics at the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University. Before that Louis worked as an economist for the Competition Bureau. He holds a PhD in economics from Queen’s University at Kingston as well as B.Sc. and M.Sc. in economics from the University of Montreal.
Latest publications
This report provides a “stress test” of the Government’s fiscal anchor and fiscal objective by estimating the likelihood that the Government’s fiscal plan presented in the 2024 Fall Economic Statement, when subject to both economic and fiscal shocks, will reduce the federal debt-to-GDP ratio over the medium term and will keep deficits below 1 per cent of GDP beginning in 2026-27.
When fulfilling its mandates, the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer is often required to estimate the impact proposed changes to personal income taxes will have on the Government of Canada’s revenue. This report provides an overview of the concept of the elasticity of taxable income, which is used to capture behavioural responses to tax changes.
Under the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, manufacturers will be required to ensure light-duty fleet offerings consistent with a zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) market share of 20 per cent in 2026, 60 per cent in 2030 and 100 per cent in 2035. This report provides an analysis of how the relative ownership costs of ZEV and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, as well as the market provision of charging infrastructure, may need to adjust to meet the ZEV sales targets under the standard by 2030.
The Underused Housing Tax (UHT) is an annual federal 1% tax on the ownership of vacant or underused housing in Canada that took effect on January 1, 2022. Since then, there has been continued interest by Parliamentarians on the expected revenues generated by the UHT. Furthermore, in November 2023 the Department of Finance release legislative and regulatory proposals designed to facilitate compliance with the UHT.
The PBO estimates that the revenues generated from this tax will be $131.7 million in fiscal year 2023-24 and $693.9 million over a 5-year period.
This report presents the PBO’s microsimulation model to estimate the cost of the Canada Disability Benefit. The model can accommodate many different design elements of the announced benefit. In addition, the report explores the cost of three hypothetical implementations of the Canada Disability Benefit.
This report provides estimates of the responsiveness (commonly referred to as “elasticity” in the economic literature) of taxable income to a change in the corporate income tax rate. Having a reliable estimate of this responsiveness allows for better estimation of the impact on federal revenue of proposed changes to the corporate income tax system.
Bill C-32 introduced the Residential Property Flipping Rule, which will be applied to residential properties sold on or after January 1, 2023. Under this new rule, the gains from reselling a residential property within 12 months of purchase will be fully taxable as ordinary income, as opposed to being exempted under the Principal Residence Exemption (for primary residences) or taxed as capital gains (for secondary residences) without this rule. The rule will not apply if the disposition results in a loss or if it is already considered as ordinary income. Exemptions to this rule will include circumstances such as deaths, household additions, separations (marriage or common-law), threats to personal safety, serious illness or disability, relocation due to employment, involuntary job termination, insolvency, or destruction/expropriation of the property.
The PBO estimates that the new Residential Property Flipping Rule introduced in Budget 2022 is expected to raise $66 million in revenue over the next five fiscal years.
This report examines the long-term impact on the Canadian economy of changing weather patterns due to climate change.
Budget 2022 introduced a new excise duty on vaping products that went into effect on October 1, 2022. The new excise duty rate is of $1.00 per 2 millilitres (mL), or fraction thereof, for containers with less than 10 mL of vaping liquid. For containers containing more than 10 mL, the rate is $5.00 for the first 10 mL and $1.00 for every additional 10 mL, or fraction thereof.
The PBO estimates that the introduction of the excise duty on vaping products will raise $2.4 billion over 5 years.
This report provides a stochastic debt sustainability analysis of the medium-term outlook presented in Budget 2022.
To assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from Budget 2022.
Pursuant to Bill C-8, the Underused Housing Tax Act would implement a 1 percent tax on the value of dwellings owned by non-resident, non-Canadians that are considered to be vacant or underused.
Several exemptions apply. Notably, properties that are the primary place of residence for the owner, owners’ common-law partner or owners’ children. In addition, vacation/recreational properties are also excluded.
The new measure will take effect on January 1, 2022.
This note provides fiscal analysis of the Government’s proposal to reduce mortgage insurance premiums collected by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
Senator Rosa Galvez requested that the PBO update the High-net-worth Family Database for the year 2019 and that the same methodology be applied to previous years in order to study the trends in the distribution of Canadian net wealth. PBO applies a modelling approach from a past report to estimate the top tail of the family wealth distribution in Canada for the year 2019. The approach is also applied to the years 1999, 2012, and 2016 in order to study the trends in wealth held by the wealthiest families in Canada. This report provides the details of the update and the results.
On October 21, 2021 the Government announced the extension of the eligibility of the Canada Recovery Caregiver Benefit (CRCB) by an additional 28 weeks as well as an additional two weeks to the maximum benefit period bringing it to a total of 44 weeks. The increase in the maximum number of benefit periods would begin after the week of November 20th, 2021.
The CRCB provides a $500 weekly taxable benefit per household for workers who miss at least 50% of their normal time at work during a week to care for someone for reasons related to COVID-19.
Eligible workers must have earned at least $5,000 in any of 2019, 2020, or the span of 12 months before they apply for the CRCB. They are ineligible for the CRCB if they are receiving certain other benefits (for example, the Canada Recovery Benefit, the Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit, Employment Insurance). This program, after the extension, sunsets on May 7, 2022.
This report assesses the insurance properties of the Fiscal Stabilization Program, its recent changes and proposed modifications.
This report is in response to a request by Member of Parliament Nathaniel Erskine-Smith (Beaches–East York) to estimate the revenues from implementing a one-time tax on extreme wealth outlined in Motion M-68 placed on notice on February 11, 2021. Specifically, it presents PBO’s revenue estimates for imposing a one-time tax on net wealth accumulated up to the end of April 2021 by Canadian resident economic families.
In Budget 2021 the government of Canada proposed to introduce a national 1% tax on the value of non-resident, non-Canadian owned residential real estate considered to be vacant or underused. The tax is planned to take effect on January 2022 and will require all owners of residential property in Canada, other than Canadian citizens or permanent residents to file a declaration for the prior calendar year in respect of each Canadian residential property they own. Depending on circumstances, owners may be eligible to exemptions from the tax in respect of a property for the year. An exemption may be available, for instance, where a property is leased to one or more qualified tenants in relation to the owner for a minimum period in a calendar year.
On February 19, the Government announced it was extending the eligibility of the Canada Recovery Caregiver Benefit (CRCB) by an additional 12 weeks, bringing the maximum benefit period to 38 weeks.
The CRCB provides a $500 weekly taxable benefit per household for workers who miss at least 50% of their normal time at work during a week to care for someone for reasons related to COVID-19.
Reasons that a worker could claim the CRCB include caring for a child under 12 or another family member 12 or over who cannot be left alone without supervision; whose school, childcare, or other type of care program is closed due to COVID-19; whose normal caregiver cannot provide care due to COVID-19; or who is staying home because they have an increased risk of severe health consequences if they become infected with COVID-19.
Eligible workers must have earned at least $5,000 in any of 2019, 2020, or the span of 12 months before they apply for the CRCB. They are ineligible for the CRCB if they are receiving certain other benefits (for example, the Canada Recovery Benefit, the Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit, Employment Insurance). This program sunsets on September 25, 2021.
Eligible workers must have earned at least $5,000 in any of 2019, 2020, or the span of 12 months before they apply for the CRCB. They are ineligible for the CRCB if they are receiving certain other benefits (for example, the Canada Recovery Benefit, the Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit, Employment Insurance ). This program sunsets on September 25, 2021.
On February 19, 2021, the government announced the extension of the Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit (CRSB). The extension will allow workers to take an additional two weeks of benefits, bringing the total maximum benefit to four weeks.
The CRSB provides $500 per week to those who are absent from at least 50% of their typical time at work in a given week because of being ill from COVID-19, self-isolating due to COVID-19, or having a medical condition that would cause them to be more vulnerable to contracting COVID-19.
This benefit is taxable. The CRSB program is in effect from September 27, 2020 to September 25, 2021.
The CRB, introduced on September 27, 2020, provides $500 per week to workers who do not qualify for EI, who earned at least $5,000 in 2019 or 2020 and who are unable to return to work or had their income reduced by at least 50% due to COVID-19. The program will last for one year.
Claimants will need to repay $0.50 of the benefit for each dollar of their annual income above $38,000 in the calendar year, up to a maximum of the amount of benefit they received. The $38,000 threshold will not include amounts received under the benefit. The benefit will be taxable.
In February, the program was amended to increase the maximum number of weeks for which the CRB can be claimed from 26 to 38 weeks.
In the 2020 Fall Economic Statement, the Government proposed to index the maximum payment of $60 per capita (set in 1987) available to a province each year through the Fiscal Stabilization Program (FSP). This indexation increases the maximum payment to $169.82 per capita for both fiscal years 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 and will grow with the Canadian economy, that is, nominal gross domestic product (GDP) per person, for subsequent years.
The proposed Canada Recovery Caregiver Benefit (CRCB) would provide a $500 taxable benefit for up to 26 weeks per household for workers who miss at least 50% of their normal time at work during a week to care for someone for reasons due to COVID-19.
Reasons that a worker could claim the CRCB include caring for a child under 12 or another family member 12 or over who cannot be left alone without supervision: whose school, childcare, or other type of care program is closed due to COVID-19; whose normal caregiver cannot provide care due to COVID-19; or who is staying home because they have an increased risk of severe health consequences if they become infected with COVID-19.
Eligible workers must have earned at least $5,000 in any of 2019, 2020, or the span of 12 months before they apply for the CRCB and are ineligible for the CRCB if they are receiving certain other benefits (e.g. the Canada Recovery Benefit, the Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit, EI benefits). This benefit would be available from September 27, 2020 to September 25, 2021.
PBO estimates total net cost of this measure to be $1.188 billion in 2020-21 and $214 million in 2021-22.
The Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit (CRSB) is a proposed measure to provide Canadians with paid sick leave for reasons related to COVID-19. Workers who miss at least 50% of their normal time at work during a week due to being sick from or self-isolating because of COVID-19, or due to having a medical issue that would make them more vulnerable to being infected with COVID-19, can receive a taxable benefit of $500. A worker can take the CRSB for a total of 2 weeks between Sept 27, 2020 and Sept 25, 2021.
Workers cannot claim CRSB at the same time they are on employer-provided paid sick leave, or certain other types of benefits or leave. Claimants must have earned at least $5,000 in any of 2019, 2020, or the span of 12 months before they apply for the CRCB.
PBO estimates total net cost of this measure to be $599 million in 2020-2021 and $550 million in 2021-2022.
The Canada Recovery Benefit, introduced on September 27, 2020, will provide $500 per week for up to 26 weeks to workers who do not qualify for EI, who earned at least $5,000 in 2019 or 2020 and who are unable to return to work or had their income reduced by at least 50% due to COVID-19. The program will last for one year.
Claimants will need to repay $0.50 of the benefit for each dollar of their annual income above $38,000 in the calendar year up to a maximum of the amount of benefit they received. The $38,000 threshold will not include amounts received under the benefit. The benefit will be taxable.
PBO estimates total net cost of this measure to be $12.853 billion in 2020-2021 and $5.087 billion in 2021-2022.